As I've mentioned before, Austria is an excellent guide to the pan-European economic cycle. In August, Austria's PMI ticked up, mirroring the uptick in the preliminary ("flash") pan-Europe PMI. Is this the beginning of an upturn? Most likely not: US stimulus has just started; European stimulus hasn't started, and anyway, there's little that they can do given that the ECB's discount rate is zero; China is still slowing (the text accompanying the news release of the Austrian PMI says new orders fell again, as did export orders, while the order backlog is falling faster than at any time since 2009); the trade war is biting.
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