Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Empire state survey rebounds



The Empire State survey, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rebounded in July.  As you can see in the chart above, my extreme adjustment program thought the May number was too high and the June number too low.  The extreme-adjusted series suggests that the eco slowdown from mid-2018 onwards has paused, which is also what my US diffusion index suggests.  It's not an economic boom, though, just a slower rate of deceleration.

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