Overtime hours

Manufacturing overtime hours as measured by the Dept of Labor is a very sensitive indicator of the state of the US economy.  Here I've compared it to my own US coinciding index (including the services sector)  It's not yet as low as it was in '15 (before the fiscal sugar hit) or '13 (after Republicans forced a cut in spending across the Federal budget—the "fiscal cliff") yet it is clearly declining.  I don't think we'll see another GFC (2008-2009) but a recession similar to 2001 is very likely, if nothing extra (war/trade war escalation) goes wrong.