Global solar deployment to grow 25% this year

Source: Renewables Now

From Renewables Now:

The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market will expand by 129 GW in 2019, at a rate of 25%, led by countries other than China, IHS Markit said.  China, currently the world largest photovoltaic (PV) market, is seen to lift its annual solar installations by only 2% after adding 45 GW in 2018. The market outside China, however, is forecast to grow by 43%, the analysis firm said in its latest PV Installations Tracker, adding that countries like Spain and Vietnam, among others, will step up solar development to meet 2019 project commissioning deadlines after falling modules prices spurred demand at end-2018.

[T]he outlook for China is now “highly uncertain” as it is still not clear whether a new support scheme for the PV sector will be introduced. “Plans to focus policy more on unsubsidised PV systems could slow near-term deployment, unless strict construction deadlines are imposed to spur 2019 demand” [Josephin Berg] added.

The market uncertainty is set to encompass India, as well, after several tenders there were delayed at a time when the price of PV components grows due to the imposition of safeguard duties. Thus, India will step back and the US will once again become the second largest PV market in 2019 as developers there rush to complete their projects before the end of the 30% investment tax credit (ITC) this year.

The European market, meanwhile, is anticipated to bring online over 19 GW of fresh solar in 2019 as it witnesses an uptake following the end of the minimum import price on PV modules from China, Taiwan and Malaysia in September 2018.

An annual 25% growth rate means deployment will nearly double every 3 years, and triple every 5.  In 2017, globally, renewables (excluding hydro) made up just 9% of total electricity generation.

Other renewables – share of power generation by region

Source: BP

Electricity demand is growing globally by 3%-ish (much faster in developing countries, stagnant in developed countries) so at current levels of renewable capacity, renewables capacity would have to grow by 33% to (3% of 9%) to prevent emissions from electricity generation rising.  A rise of 25% in solar and less in wind means it won't happen this year.  But when renewables ex hydro reach 15% of global electricity supply (2021?),  a rise of 20% in total renewables capacity will in principle be able to satisfy all of the rise in electricity demand.  From then on, each year's increment in renewables generation decreases fossil fuel emissions from electricity generation, and each year, the percentage decrease in those fossil fuel emissions will accelerate.

At 20% per annum growth in renewables deployment, renewables will make up 55% of total electricity generation by 2030.  I suspect, because of the collapse in the costs of wind, solar and batteries, that the percentage may actually be higher.  Add hydro and nuclear (roughly 25% together, today), and carbon-free generation would make up 80% of total electricity supply.  Reasonably optimistic.  If it happens.