Tuesday, March 26, 2019

World Economies continue to slow

The PMI indicators are simple (and sample!) surveys which ask respondents whether their sales, output, employment, etc are up or down on the previous month.  They don't ask how much they're up or down.  National industrial production or employment  or retail surveys ask quantities.  So, it is possible that the bigger companies could be doing OK and smaller companies not, which would lead to indices of industrial production or retail sales rising while PMIs fall.  Usually, though, the two tend to move together, especially when smoothed.

PMIs continue to fall.  What that means (refer above) is that fewer and fewer respondents are seeing improving sales/employment/output each month.   But it also implies that economies are slowing, and if the PMI is below 50%, that they are contracting.

Still above 50%, but falling fast. Xtrm adjusted

Below 50%, back to 2012 Euro Crisis levels

Paused its fall this month, but trend is still down and now below 50%

Unweighted average of Eur, Jap,US.  Heading towards 50%. 
Note: doesn't include China, which is also below 50 (February data)

Sliding along with the world, plus Oz has some large own goals too.

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