Solar projections rebound

From GreenTech Media:

Projections for utility-scale solar growth from 2020 to 2022 now exceed forecasts drafted before the Trump administration’s announcement of Section 201 tariffs, according to a new Solar Market Insight report from energy research and consulting company Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

Many external factors, including global oversupply, a spike in corporate procurements and the passage of California’s SB 100 law mandating 100 percent clean energy, have helped shift the market since the January 2018 tariff announcement. Analysts say the overall health of the industry has blunted the industry’s worst-fear impacts, even if the dynamics of the market look different than they did then.   

“It’s absolutely not apples-to-apples, but to me that’s a really important message,” said Colin Smith, a senior solar analyst at Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables who covers the utility-scale market. “Not only has the market recovered and done really well despite the tariffs, it’s actually to the point where we expect more solar — at least on the utility-scale solar side — than we did in the pre-tariff conditions.”

Smith said WoodMac’s Q1 2019 utility-scale forecast for 2020 is 8 percent higher than its Q4 2017 forecast, released before the administration finalized tariffs. Its 2021 forecast is 19 percent higher than the pre-tariff projection. 

 [Read more here]

I see that their post-2022 forecast shows a decline, presumably because of the end of the investment tax credit.  I suspect that if there is a decline--and remember, solar is cheaper than coal and gas in many parts of the US even without the tax credit, so the loss of the tax credit shouldn't make much difference--it will be because the previous year's number is much higher as deals are brought forward.  Or, to put it another way, Wood MacKenzie's data are prolly not optimistic enough.