Collapse in new coal plants, globally

From The Guardian:

The number of coal-fired power plants being developed around the world has collapsed in the last three years, according to a report.

The number of plants on which construction has begun each year has fallen by 84% since 2015, and 39% in 2018 alone, while the number of completed plants has dropped by more than half since 2015.

Source

The report, from the NGO-backed Global Energy Monitor, says the falling costs of renewable energy are pricing coal out of the electricity market, more than 100 financial institutions have blacklisted coal producers, and political action to cut carbon emissions is growing.

“It’s only a matter of time before coal is a thing of the past worldwide,” said one of the report’s authors, Neha Mathew-Shah, of the Sierra Club.

However, Christine Shearer, of Global Energy Monitor, said even emissions from the existing coal plants were incompatible with keeping global warming below 2C. “We need to radically phase down coal plant use over the next decade to keep on track for Paris climate goals,” she said.

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My guess is that because the costs of renewables are falling so fast,
coal power stations will be retired long before the end of their working lives.
But that may not happen in centrally planned economies

The report warns of a possible coal plant resurgence in China, where satellite photos show developers have restarted work on dozens of suspended projects.

Coal plant retirements have continued at a record pace, the report finds, with the US accounting for more than half of the total despite efforts by the Trump administration to prevent the closure of ageing plants. A separate report this week found that three quarters of existing US coal-fired electricity production was now more expensive than new solar and wind energy.

However, data from the International Energy Agency published on Tuesday found that global carbon emissions rose in 2018, with a young fleet of coal plants in Asia accounting for a third of the increase.

China and India have accounted for 85% of new coal power capacity since 2005, according to the Global Energy Monitor report. China permitted construction for the generation of less than 5GW of coal power in 2018, compared with 184GW in 2015. India permitted less than 3GW in 2018, compared with 39GW in 2010. India has added more solar and wind power capacity than coal over the last two years.

However, a report by the China Electricity Council, which represents the power utilities, proposes allowing 290GW of new capacity, more than the entire US coal fleet.

[Read more here]


The potential explosion in Chinese coal power station building is extremely worrying:

From 2000 through 2018, China added 864 GW of new coal power capacity, well over three times the entire coal-fired generating capacity of the US (259 GW). In addition, a permitting decentralization program in effect from late 2014 to early 2016 led to local authorities approving 245 GW of coal power capacity for construction—a three-fold increase from previous levels. 


Facing overcapacity, the central government in March 2016 began to restrict the permitting and construction of new coal plants, with exceptions for projects located in impoverished areas and for residential heat and power. 


In 2017 the central government listed 170 GW of plants by name for suspension, mainly projects in construction or advanced stages of permitting. One-quarter (44 GW) of the 170 GW of capacity was ordered to slow development, 16% (28 GW) to stop development until issues with permitting and regulations were resolved, and nearly 60% (98 GW) to postpone all development until after 2020. By the end of 2018, satellite imagery and analysis showed development ongoing at nearly half (78 GW, or 46%) of the 170 GW of coal plants. It remains to be seen how much of the remaining 54% (92 GW) will also continue development. 

Source
Note how permits exploded in 2015, when responisbility was transfered to the regions.
Since then, the central government has taken back control.
In 2018 only 5 GW of capacity was approved

However, in what appears to be a potential sign that the central government may not only greenlight all the suspended plants, but also build new ones, the China Electricity Council (CEC) published a March 2019 report that proposed capping the country’s coal power capacity at 1,300 GW in 2030—the first time the 1,300 GW cap has appeared in a semi-official document. The change would allow the country to increase its coal fleet 290 GW above the current level, an amount more than the entire coal power capacity of the US (259 GW). The proposal signals that the CEC, the industry body representing China’s power sector, is pushing for a large, continued expansion of the country’s coal fleet. It is unclear how the central government will respond, given its recent efforts to slow the rate of coal plant commissioning and the issuing of new permits, with only 5 GW of new coal capacity green-lighted for construction in 2018, a record low.

[Read more here]

The Chinese position is driven by several factors;

1. It's still a high growth economy. High growth means rising demand for electricity. Unless 100% of new capacity is in renewables/hydro/nuclear, coal use will increase. It's easier when electricity demand is stagnant, as it is in most developed countries.
2. The Chinese government is well aware that China is now the major contributor to CO2 emissions, and that it will suffer as the globe warms. Many millions live close to sea level, and much of its industrial capacity could be flooded if sea levels rise. Note that with the central government back in control, only 5 MW of new capacity was permitted in 2018.
3. Air pollution remains a critical health—and political—problem. A 30% increase in coal power station capacity is completely inconsistent with reducing air pollution.
4. This year, the cost of new coal in China will likely equal the cost of new renewables, without "firming". However, China's huge hydro resources mean that at current renewable penetration, "firming" isn't a problem. The government must be aware that the collapse in renewables costs risks "stranded assets" in coal generation. It makes sense to try and limit future liabilities on the public purse.

So I'm hopeful that the CEC's proposal to increase coal generation caps will be refused and won't happen. We shall see. If they go ahead, we'll be lucky to limit global warming to 2 degrees, let alone 1.5. Meanwhile, in developed countries, we need to accelerate the closure of coal power stations. Falling costs in renewables will make that process a lot easier.