Fade to black

From the ever reliable Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

Just last summer, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. planned to retire two of its five remaining coal-fired power plants by 2023. Now, it plans to do away with all of them over the next decade, and buy more solar and wind power instead.

Northern Indiana Public Service, part of NiSource Inc., concluded that phasing out coal sooner was worth it because it would move the company to what is becoming a cheaper source of power, and ultimately reduce costs for its 470,000 customers by as much as $4 billion over 30 years. It has proposed raising average rates by $11 a month starting later this year to cover higher short-term costs related to closing the plants, as well as grid upgrades and other unrelated expenses. However, the company expects that the accelerated closures will reduce its overall generation costs starting in 2023.

“We’ll continue to see renewables and other technology become more cost competitive,” said Joe Hamrock, NiSource’s chief executive. “There’s recognition that the market is changing in a fundamental and permanent way.”

Xcel Energy Inc. said last month that it plans to shift entirely to 100% carbon-free power generation by 2050, becoming the first major U.S. utility to make such a pledge.

The company, which covers parts of Colorado, Minnesota and six other states, says that coal could account for as little of 10% of its power mix by 2030. It was more than one-third of the mix in 2017. Xcel expects lower fuel and production costs will eventually offset some initial rate increases.

Northern Indiana Public Service, located within another regional electricity grid, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, decided to retire four coal units within the next five years and its final one by 2028, after soliciting bids from wholesale power providers last year.

It received 90 proposals for a range of technologies, including wind and solar generation priced at roughly $27 to $40 per megawatt hour. By comparison, the company estimated that continuing to operate its coal fleet would cost between $57 and $82 per megawatt hour.

“We were certainly surprised,” said Mr. Hamrock, the CEO of the utility’s parent. “We’re in a very different moment, with renewables dramatically more competitive for our customers in our region.

[Read more here]

We have to get to 100% renewable electricity by 2040.  And I think we will do it, because the transitions now happening in the USA and other countries are starting to be driven by cost not by our desire to reduce carbon emissions.  To get to 100% is, compounded, an annual increase of 10% in the ratio of renewables each year.  That's perfectly feasible.  The annual percentage increase in that ratio since 2007 has been 9.5% per annum.  To do it in 11 years would require a growth rate of 20%, and I suspect we might even that with the ongoing cost declines in renewables.

Some small reason for optimism.