The September survey results for the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) and the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the US for September show that growth remains strong. Both indices are diffusion indices, which measure the percentage of respondents' replies showing up, down or unchanged. 50% shows where half the respondents have improving business and half declining. The further above 50%, the stronger growth is. The advantage of these surveys is that are published on the 1st of the month with data for the previous month. The ISM has reliably called every major and most minor US downturns since the late 1930s.
I have extreme-adjusted the data (to remove "spikes"). The thick green line shows the average of the two time series.
Current strength doesn't mean future strength. Monetary policy is tightening, slowly, which will reduce growth next year and in 2020. Meanwhile, a strong economy means there is no reason for the Fed not to keep on its track of raising rates.
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