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Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Tesla 3 production soars

The Tesla skeptics/haters have had a field day with the "slow" ramp up of Model 3 production over the last 9 months.  One short-seller even claimed that Tesla will be bankrupt in 3 months.

I seriously doubt that.  In the last week of March, model 3 production passed the 2000 mark.  As production expands, not only does cash flow rise (because more vehicles are sold) but profit also rises (because unit costs decline). 

"Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter."

"The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T."

"We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment."

"In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3. "

Tesla adds that it expects Model 3 production to hit 5,000 units per week “in about three months,” so maybe July then.

“Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.”

“The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3’s. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla’s history.”

“Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack.”

[Read more here]

Total EV/PHEV sales in 2017 in the USA were 200,000 units.  When Tesla produces 5000 units of the Model 3 per week, monthly US EV/PHEV sales of all brands will average 40,000.   This will be almost as many as sold for the whole year in 2012.  A ten-fold increase in 6 years.  And you may be sure that Model 3 production won't peak at 5000 a week.  This is the year that EVs will go mainstream in the US.


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