Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Model 3 production rate

Tesla is a critical component to the rise of the EV.  Without Tesla, it's doubtful whether any of the major car makers would have bothered with EVs.  For example, GM is selling just enough Bolts to comply with California's strict ZEV regulations.  Even China, now driving a rapid take-up of electric vehicles, was undoubtedly influenced by seeing that EVs were feasible.  Tesla made electric cars glamorous and sexy, far removed from their previous image as golf carts or milk floats.

So Tesla's survival is really important.  Tesla bet the shop on the Model 3.  If it works, Tesla will not only survive, it will prosper.  And the energy transition will get stronger and stronger.  Tesla has already announced delays in its ramp up of Model 3 production.  There has been schadenfreude in some quarters and dismay in others because of this.  Yet it looks as if the delay is merely a matter of months.  Bloomberg has come up with a mathematical model to estimate weekly Model 3 sales, using VINs and other data.

Source: Bloomberg.  Note date is peculiar US format, i.e., runs from Sept 1st to Feb 18th

Tesla's target is 2,500 per week by the end of March, and 5,000 a week by the end of June.  Those targets now look achievable.  And when they are achieved, Tesla Model 3 sales will double US EV sales this year.

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