Nothing written herein should be construed as financial or medical advice.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Exponential growth in world EV sales continues

Inside EVs have published their latest estimates of US  and world EV/PHEV sales.  (Their basic data; my seasonal adjustment, my trend estimates and my estimate for global car sales in 2017) For the first time I've plotted the chart on a log scale.  A log scale is better for showing things that are growing exponentially.  In this case it shows (roughly) a rising straight line, implying that in absolute terms, the rise in the percentage of EVs sold is accelerating.


The year-on-year growth rate continues to pick up.  This is before Tesla 3 or Nissan Leaf sales have got going.  At the current growth rate (65%), EVs/PHEVs will make up 3.6% of all new car sales this time next year.  With Leaf and Model 3 sales likely to explode in 2018, my guess is that that percentage could be even higher.  From 0.4% of the world market at the beginning of 2014, to 4% at the end of 2018 .... if the growth rate (i.e., the straight line in the chart above) continues, EVs and PHEVs will be 40% of the world car market by the end of 2023, and close to 100% not long after.  What price oil?


No comments:

Post a Comment