China to target 10% electric cars

Beijing smog.  Source: Green Car Reports

It's official. China is to target 10% NEVs (new energy vehicles) in 2019.  Car makers complained about the 8% target for 2018, saying they didn't have enough time to gear up for it, so the government postponed the start date, but kept the initially planned level of 10% for 2019.  The 2020 target is 12% and the 2025 target remains 20%.  From the article in Green Car Reports:

You may not have heard it happen, but the global automotive industry changed forever on Thursday.

China released its plan to require substantial sales of plug-in electric cars by all makers who want to sell in the world's largest car market, and they start in little more than a year.

The levels far exceed those required by California, whose zero-emission vehicle rules have just started to ramp up for 2018 after staying steady for six years.

"It is no exaggeration to call this a landmark event in the history of the automobile," said Michael Dunne, who's covered that country's auto industry for 20 years.

China's electric-car production quotas, as detailed in China Daily and covered by Bloomberg among others on Thursday, apply to any maker selling more than 30,000 units a year in China—which last year bought 28 million vehicles.

Credits for so-called new-energy vehicles, both plug-in hybrids and battery-electric cars, must make up 10 percent of sales by 2019, one year later than originally planned.

"China is granting automakers a minor break on the timing to get up to speed," Dunne acknowledged, "But these aggressive quotas will put China firmly in the driver's seat for electric cars globally."

“China is sending a clear signal to large automakers that had been dragging their feet on EVs," said Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Colin McKerracher, "that it’s time to get on board."

The rules from Beijing establish a system of points allocated to all-electric cars, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, and plug-in hybrids. Total points earned must add up to 10 percent of each automaker's sales, translating to roughly half that percentage in actual units.

It appears that 1 point will be earned for each PHEV (plug-in hybrid) and 2 to 4 points for each EV (electric vehicle) depending on the range. 

World EV/PHEV sales are running at 100,000 per month, 1.8% of global car sales.  Just by itself, this move by China will more than double world EV sales in 2019.  Add the Tesla Model 3 to that (500,000 a year by 2019, or 40,000 per month) and EV sales will be 4.8% of all car sales.  But Nissan expects the new Leaf to more than double its sales, too (which seems very plausible--it's cheaper than the old Leaf with twice the range).  Plus GM's Bolt.  The demonstration effect of friends and neighbours buying EVs and PHEVs will make many more buyers notice too, and they will buy EVs.  The curve is flexing up, steeply.

Meanwhile Shell has bought one of Europe's largest EV charger businesses and will start rolling out Shell-branded chargers at Shell service stations.  It's all happening.