Wind costs to halve again over next 12 years

Source of underlying data: Lazard

Wind costs have halved over the last 8 years, and are down 95% over the last 30.  So you might be forgiven for wondering just how much further this decline can go.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), part of the US Dept of Energy, in a report says that the cost of wind will halve again over the next 12 years:

With science driving wind-technology innovations, the unsubsidized cost of wind energy could drop to 50% of current levels, equivalent to $23 per megawatt-hour, by 2030, according to a report released by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). 

“Our research indicates that, if the United States continues to invest in wind research and development, wind energy can achieve costs competitive with the fuel-only cost of natural gas-fired electricity generation in less than 15 years,” said NREL engineer Katherine Dykes, lead author of the report. 

Next-generation wind technology—enabled by government-funded scientific advancement and industry-led technology innovation—will comprise a collection of intelligent and novel features characterized as “System Management of Atmospheric Resource through Technology,” or SMART strategies. SMART wind power plants will be designed and operated to achieve enhanced power production, more efficient material use, lower operation and maintenance and servicing costs, lower risks for investors, extended plant life, and an array of grid control and reliability features.  

The realization of the SMART wind power plant is projected to result in an unsubsidized cost of energy of $23 per megawatt-hour and below—a reduction of 50% or more from current cost levels. Under this scenario, wind energy deployments in the United States could increase to more than 200 gigawatts by 2030 and 500 gigawatts by 2050, supplying respectively 20% and 47% of U.S. electricity with wind. In addition, investment in SMART wind power technology research and innovation could support as much as $150 billion in cumulative electric sector cost savings from 2017 to 2050.

[Read more here]

 The costs of wind are falling more slowly than the costs of solar, but they're still declining.  NREL's forecast is that they will go on falling by 6% per annum, which is lower than it's been over the last decade (9% per annum)  but they key point is that wind is already cheaper than coal.  According to Lazard, natural gas costs about the same as (unsubsidised) wind.  And gas is still very handy for filling gaps in supply or surges in demand because unlike coal or nuclear, you can quickly scale it up or down.  Yet, as costs from wind decline further, even natural gas will become too costly next to its renewable competitors.