The chart below shows the change in the unemployment rate, inverted (because it goes up when the economy falls, and vice versa) compared with the whole-economy ISM (Institute for Supply Management) extreme-adjusted index, I had thought that the rise in the unemployment rate to 4% was a sign that the economy might be slowing, but the graph doesn't show that. True, it doesn't show a strong upswing either (remember, up = falling unemployment)
The chart below shows the three-month change in total non-agricultural employment. In this case, it doesn't need to be inverted, because employment rises when the economy strengthens and falls in slowdowns.
Both charts confirm that the US economy is not dropping into recession. However, its recovery is also, for the time being, muted. That augurs well for falling inflation and therefore falling interest rates.
All good news for the Biden/Democratic Party campaigns.
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