The huge climate impact of the middle classes

From The Guardian

The richest 10% of people in many countries cause up to 40 times more climate-heating carbon emissions than the poorest 10% of their fellow citizens, according to data obtained by the Guardian.

Failing to account for this huge divide when making policies to cut emissions can cause a backlash over the affordability of climate action, experts say.

The world’s richest 10% encompasses most of the middle classes in developed countries – anyone paid more than about $40,000 (£32,000) a year. The lavish lifestyles of the very rich – the 1% – attract attention. But the 10% are responsible for half of all global emissions, making them key to ending the climate crisis.

The Cop28 UN climate summit begins on 30 November, at a time when the window to salvage a livable future for humanity is rapidly closing.

When climate negotiations began in the 1990s, most of the inequality in people’s carbon emissions was between rich and poor nations. Three decades on, the situation has reversed. Now, most of the inequality in emissions between the rich and poor exists within individual countries.

This shift has enormous implications for how the climate crisis can be ended, researchers say, although international support for the poorest and least polluting nations remains vital.

Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) details the energy-related CO2 emissions per person in 2021 in a dozen major countries, plus the 27-nation EU. In the US, UK, EU and Japan, the richest 10% have carbon footprints about 15 times greater than the poorest 10%. In China, South Africa, Brazil and India, the top 10% cause 30-40 times more emissions than the bottom 10%.

In all cases, the emissions of the top 10% are as high as those of at least the bottom 50%. In the US and China the situation is even less equal: the emissions of the top 10% are higher than the bottom 70% combined. South Africa is the most extreme example, with the footprint of the top 10% as large as that of the remaining 90%.

Transport, especially car use, is a major factor in the sky-high emissions of the richest 10%, with these emissions 20-40 times higher than the transport emissions of the poorest 10% in the countries analysed.

In the US and Canada, road transport makes up about a third of the footprint of the top 10%. The transport emissions of the richest 10% are the same as the transport footprint of the bottom 70% of the population in those countries.

Another major factor is the emissions embodied in the goods that people buy, such as furniture and electronics. These are 20-50 times higher for the richest 10%, and make up about a third of emissions in most countries.

Carbon inequality between countries accounted for two-thirds of all carbon inequality in 1990, but now two-thirds of carbon inequality occurs within nations. This is because emissions in rapidly developing nations, such as China, have approached those in rich nations in recent decades, narrowing the difference between nations. The other key factor, Chancel said, was rising income inequality, particularly in the global south.

“It’s very important to stress that big gaps between countries still remain. But on top of this you now also have a lot of within-country inequality,” he said.

The IEA data shows that the poorest 10% in the US still have a footprint bigger than 90% of those in India.

Globally, the top 10% by income totals 770 million people, with almost two-thirds in high-income countries, according to a report from the Stockholm Environment Institute and Oxfam.

Within the UK, the top 10% are those paid more than £59,000.

The researchers estimated that the projected growth in millionaires, from 0.7% of the global population to 3.3%, would result in accumulated emissions of 286bn tonnes of CO2, about 70% of the emissions budget remaining in 2021 if global heating was to be kept to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. A more recent estimate of the carbon budget was 250bn tonnes, suggesting the growth in millionaires alone could wipe it out completely.

“I think it is significant that such a small share of humanity will consume so much of the remaining carbon budget,” said Prof Stefan Gössling, of Linnaeus University in Sweden, who led the study. “It will not be enough to just impose taxes on carbon, as the rich can essentially afford to pay the extra amount, while poor people would be more affected.”

Chancel, in a recent report, noted that a “relatively modest” progressive wealth tax of 1.5% on people with $100m or more in assets – 0.001% of the global population – would raise $295bn a year. That is a similar amount to what is needed to protect the world’s people from the growing impacts of the climate crisis.