If you look just at surveys such as the PMI or ISM, the US economy looks as if it has stopped falling and might even be about to turn up. There is one indicator, however, which points towards recession, and that is the unemployment rate. Now, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, inversely related to the economic cycle. So, on the face of it, not a particularly useful guide to the current state of the economy. But .... its change over three or six months is a coinciding indicator which tells you what's happening to the economy right now.
The chart below shows the six-month change in the US unemployment rate, plotted inversely. It is consistent with deepening recession, after the "blip" earlier this year. You can see the business cycles of the past clearly outlined: the double-dip, deep recessions of 1980 to 1984; the 1990 recession; the 2001/02 recession; the GFC in 2009; the covid crash in 2020, with its rebound in 2021, as well as the peak in late 2021/early 2022 as the economy responded to zero interest rates and massive fiscal stimulus. [On a personal note, I lived through them all, as I have been in investments/economics since 1975, and that is how long I have been forecasting the US and world economies.]
Some of the rise in the unemployment rate is due to strikes in the latest month. But only some. This indicator points unambiguously to recession. Which is very interesting indeed.
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