Wednesday, September 13, 2023

EVs/PHEVs/HEVs now 25% of global car sales

 From CleanTechnica


Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 41% in July 2023 compared to July 2022, rising to 1,104,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 16% share of the overall auto market (11% BEV share alone). This means that the global automotive market is firmly in the Electric Disruption Zone. Add close to 900,000 units coming from plugless hybrids and we have one quarter of global registrations having some form of electrification!

Year to date, plugin electric vehicle market share was stable at 15% (10% BEV).

Full electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 69% of plugin registrations in July, keeping the year-to-date tally at 70% share.

Only two legacy manufacturers made it into the list of top 20 models sold globally for the month, and the dominant manufacturers were BYD and Tesla.   The legacy car-makers are being left in the dust.

The chart below shows global EV + PHEV (plug-in hybrid) sales using the original (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) data from InsideEVs and CleanTechnica.  I've seasonally adjusted and smoothed the underlying data. Note that the chart has been plotted using a log scale.   In January 2014, global EV/PHEV car sales were 14,512.  In July this year, monthly sales were 1,152,657 on a trend basis.   Ponder that for a moment.

In Q1, EVs and PHEVs made up +-16.9% of global car sales (my calculations; I'm busy improving my global car sales data); in 2018 (just 5 years ago!) they made up 2.9%.   The S-curve continues to flex up.  

In 2017, I forecast that EV/PHEV sales would make up 22.5% of total car sales; we'll reach that by the end of this year.  (My forecast then was that we'd reach 100% by 2031, which still seems likely.)  I estimated that by this point, the annual decline in petrol (gasoline) sales would be 3.7% as the ICEV car fleet was replaced by EVs/PHEVs.  The same can't be said about diesel, as we're only just at the beginning of the switch-over to electric in the heavy-duty lorry sector.  In 2020, 48.6% of oil produced was used for road transport in the OECD, but that excludes China, one third of the world's car sales, where the EV revolution is much further advanced.  Peak oil, anyone?




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