The average PMI for the big 4 economies (US, UK, Japan, Euro zone) rose fractionally in September (provisional data). The big blip caused by "revenge spending" on services after the Covid lockdowns is over, but, on the other hand, the PMI average isn't plummeting. The chart below shows the GDP-weighted averages of the manufacturing and services PMIs, for the big 4 and the big 8. (The big 8 is the big 4 plus China, India Russia and Brazil, and we won't have their PMIs for another 10 days)
Because monetary policy works with a lag, the record collapse in money supply and the 40-year record rise in interest rates prolly hasn't taken full effect yet. Services have been holding up economies, and in the USA, the fiscal sugar-hit of the so-called "Inflation Reduction Act" also has something to do with the surprising resilience of the US economy. All the same, both Europe and the UK are both clearly slipping deeper into recession, even if the US isn't---yet.
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