Too right, Olivia

 I'm very depressed about global heating and the climate catastrophe.  

The rise in temperatures per decade is ±0.2 degrees C, and that increase is proportional to the level of emissions, not the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.  That's good news, because if we (the world) halved emissions, we would halve the rise in temperatures per decade.   And if we halved them again, well, temperatures would only be rising by 0.05 degrees per decade.  Which gives us much more time to cut the emissions in really difficult sectors like cement and agriculture and air travel.

The first 50% cut in emissions is in principle relatively easy, even though it is a massive task.  New wind and solar are cheaper than new coal, and as coal power stations age, they will be replaced by renewables (with overcapacity and short-term and long-term storage), and petrol/diesel cars will be replaced by EVs.  Together, these changes will reduce emissions by about 45%.  

Sounds good, right?   Well, not quite.  China is *still* building new coal power stations, hand over fist.  China is responsible for >25% of world emissions.   Yes, I know they're building them as backup, after last year's record drought crushed hydro.   All the same.  And again, a third of new cars sold in China are EVs.  But this is just new cars.  It'll take 15 years at least for the entire car/light truck fleet to transition--a calculus which applies to all car fleets across the world.

So with the best will in the world, it's going to take us (the world) two, maybe three decades to halve emissions, not one.  Which in turn means that temperatures will rise by about 0.4 degrees over the next 20 years, and another 0.3 over the 20 after them.  1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times has been bad enough and is obviously already causing catastrophic climate variation.   And that's assuming no disastrous doom loop feedbacks.  What will 2 or 2.1 or 2.2 degrees do?

Meanwhile, in dear old OZ, the Labor Party (at state level) has punitively criminalised peaceful climate protest, while still subsidising coal and gas production.  The denialist Republicans will prolly get back into power at the next US election.   China is still building coal power stations.   Completely useless carbon offset schemes are flavour of the month.  Companies piously promise to achieve net-zero at some far off, mystical date while not changing their actual behaviour at all.   Why bother to actually do something when we can pretend so well?

So I give thanks for First Dog.  He made me chuckle ("Too right, Olivia").  And now for my first glass of wine.   I'll feel better soon.

Source: First Dog on the Moon