The chart below shows the year-on-year change in US industrial production to June 2023, with the red line showing the latest data, and the blue line last month's data with my estimate based on a regression of the average of the ISM/PMI monthly survey results.
The last few months of IP have been revised slightly (happens all the time), but the rate of change of the estimate is not very far from the RoC of the revised data with its new estimate for June.
So, so far, my technique to estimate the latest month of industrial production seems to be working. Theory is never enough---you have to see it working in fact to be certain.
Oh, and US IP has gone negative for the first time since the Covid Crash.
Observe the time scale---I have graphed the data only from June 2021 onwards, to exclude the sharp spike in the year-on-year values caused by the Covid Crash in H1 2020.
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