Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Big 8 PMI falls to new lows

 My calculation of the PMI for the "Big 8" (US, UK, Euro area, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Russia -- 70% of world GDP) slid again in June.  

I think the debate about whether the world economy will go into recession is over: it already is in recession.  If we ignore the Covid crash, which was caused by lockdowns not monetary or fiscal policy, the big 8 PMI is the lowest since the GFC (2008/9).

My big 8 index is PPP GDP weighted, and each country's index is extreme-adjusted before the adjusted PMIs are weighted and added together.  I'll be doing a big 8 services PMI with the same method of calculation when the June services PMIs are released in a couple of days, because at the moment it is only services which are keeping the world economy afloat, as a result of pent-up demand after lockdowns, and we need to keep a close track of what is happening there.




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