The chart shows my calculation of world industrial production, extreme-adjusted and shown as a percentage of moving trend, compared with the diffusion index of all its components. A diffusion index measures the percentage of a sample which is rising. At 100% all components are rising, at 0% none is. Traditionally, 50% is the "recession line": if the diffusion index is below 50, it's a sign of recession, and the further below it is the deeper the recession.
The fall in the orange line shows that world IP is growing more slowly than its recent trend, which is however quite strong. In absolute terms, it's flat to marginally down. The diffusion index has gone below 50%, which means more component countries have falling rather than rising IP---though I'm not sure whether to believe China's and Russia's data any more.
Here's a chart showing world IP since the end of the post-covid rebound, to get a better idea of the trend. This time, it's showing the change over six months at an annual rate in the extreme-adjusted index. So, so far, only a little bit negative.
The last couple of months are provisional, because they are partially estimated from PMI indices, so they may be revised. Estimates of world IP for January, February and March are likely to be revised only a little, while April and June will likely have larger revisions.
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