The 'flash' (preliminary) estimate of S&P Global's purchasing manager survey rose a little in January. Does this mean that recovery is in sight? Prolly not. Rising interest rates take a while to affect the economy, and the full impact of the Fed's increase in the discount rate from 0 to 4.3% hasn't yet hit the economy. The lag between changes in interest rates and economic activity is long, but variable. The shortest is 12 months; the average is ±18 months. (I'll give you the chart in my next post)
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| 50% manufacturing, 50% non-manufacturing |
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