Friday, July 22, 2022

Global electricity demand slowing this year

 From RE News

The world’s electricity demand growth is slowing sharply in 2022 from its strong recovery the previous year as economic growth weakens and energy prices soar following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the IEA’s latest Electricity Market Report.

Global electricity demand is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2022 after last year’s 6% increase, bringing it in line with its average growth rate over the five years prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the new report says.

While electricity demand is currently expected to continue on a similar growth path into 2023, the outlook is clouded by economic turbulence and uncertainty over how fuel prices could impact the generation mix, IEA said. 

Strong capacity additions are set to push up global renewable power generation by more than 10% in 2022, displacing some fossil fuel generation.

Despite nuclear’s 3% decline, low-carbon generation is set to rise by 7% overall, leading to a 1% drop in total fossil fuel-based generation.

As a result, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global electricity sector are set to decline in 2022 from the all-time high they reached in 2021, albeit by less than 1%.

In the first half of 2022, average natural gas prices in Europe were four times as high as in the same period in 2021 while coal prices were more than three times as high, resulting in wholesale electricity prices more than tripling in many markets.

The IEA’s price index for major global electricity wholesale markets reached levels that were twice the first-half average of the 2016-2021 period.

Due to high gas prices and supply constraints, coal is replacing natural gas for power generation in markets with spare coal plant capacity, particularly in European countries seeking to end their reliance on Russian gas imports.

To secure energy supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some European countries have delayed coal phase-out plans and lifted previously imposed restrictions on coal.

Globally, coal use for power is expected to increase slightly in 2022 as growth in Europe is balanced by contractions in China, due to strong renewables’ growth and only a modest rise in electricity demand, and the United States, due to constraints on supply and coal power plant capacity.

Gas power is expected to fall by 2.6% as declines in Europe and South America outweigh growth in North America and the Middle East.

Renewables are now a large enough ratio of total electricity supply that an increase of 10% per annum in renewable electricity output  is enough to lead to a small decline in fossil fuels burnt to make electricity.  This is good news, though the decline is nowhere near fast enough.  And it is also offset by fossil fuels used in transport, which are still rising.

Source: Our World in Data
Note: this covers all energy, not just electricity, i.e.,
it includes cars, aircraft, ships etc.
The big fall in 2020, and the rebound in 2021 is due to covid

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