US headline inflation is back at 1980 levels. Core inflation (which excludes food and oil price movements) is only marginally lower. Commodity price inflation is back at 1972 rates. The labour market is tight. Growth is strong, though slowing.
Expect Fed to tighten more than consensus.
There is a high risk of deep recession in 2023.
(On a side note: this is the first time I've used the 'inflation' tag on this blog since I started it over 10 years ago.)
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