From a Twitter thread by Eric Feigl-Ding
Whoa— @bankofengland just warned that deep concern of surging #LongCovid is taking workers out of the workforce. The spike in workers age 16-64 who do not work because of long term illness during the #COVID pandemic is alarming, and fast increasing. [Just look at this] Bank of England graph again… the surge in women not working due to long term sickness is now at a 30 year high!! Jesus.
“Since Q4-19, the number of people aged 16-64 years that are outside the workforce and do not want a job has risen by 525,000 (1.3% of the 16-64 age population). This **largely reflects increases in long-term sickness** (roughly 320,000 people) and retirement (90,000) “The share of the 16-64 who are outside the workforce and do not want a job because of long-term sickness is a record high, with an especially sharp rise among women—much of this rise in inactivity due to long-term sickness reflects side effects of the pandemic, eg Long Covid”
Don’t forget that #LongCOVID also carries the risk of being denied life insurance as well as possibly, I predict, employment denial in the future as well. We know this may likely happen, as seen by the employment trends already recognized above. Don’t risk mass infection! US’s Federal Reserve Chair now also warns about persistent labor shortages. Like the UK, the labor shortage will be very acute, and likely due to pandemic related long term illnesses.
in terms of inflation, the Bank of England says, aside from Energy, COVID EFFECTS ON DEMAND and COVID EFFECTS ON COSTS and LABOR are major contributors to inflation.
Inflation is likely to trend higher because of the labour shortages Feigl-Ding talk about, but it's not the only factor. Covid and the Ukraine war have shown that 'just in time' manufacturing, and 'outsourcing' to foreign countries, risks creating supply blockages. In effect, these factors have contracted overall supply of goods and services, which means that ceteris paribus, inflation will be higher than normal.
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