The people who produce the PMI (Purchasing Manager Indices) for most world economies also release a "flash" or preliminary index for a few countries. These are based on partial data and are usually revised a little when full data become available. However, the revisions for individual countries will tend to offset each other, if they are random. To complement a 'Big 8' weighted-average PMI, I have also created a 'Big 4' average PMI for the countries for which a "flash" PMI is released. These are: the USA, Japan, Europe and the UK. The biggest missing country is China, which is in the 'Big 8' weighted index, but for which a "flash" PMI is not released. The indices are weighted by PPP (purchasing power parity) GDP.
A comparison of the two aggregates is shown below.
The 'Big 4' PMI fell in May. Since PMIs for China (covid lockdown) and Russia (war/sanctions) are also likely to have retreated over the month, the 'Big 8' PMI prolly also fell in May. This will take the May datum well below the end 2017 peak. Growth is definitely slowing, and rising central bank discount rates will only intensify the slowdown. The probability of a 2023 global recession keeps on rising.
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