More frequent disasters

 From Guy On Climate

Costly Trends: The number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (including tropical cyclones, wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, floods, and severe storms) to hit the U.S. each year has been increasing—from an average of 3 events per year in the 1980s to 12 events per year in the 2010s. 

Last year saw a record-shattering total of 22 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the U.S., costing a combined $99 billion (CPI-adjusted) in damages, according to NOAA. 

The last five years alone account for nearly a third (31.8%) of the $1.98 trillion in total costs of billion-dollar disasters nationwide since 1980. 

These staggering figures primarily reflect direct impacts on assets (including damage to homes, crops, and critical infrastructure) and therefore don’t reflect the full toll of disasters—including on human health and well-being, displacement, food and water supplies, as well as loss of cultural heritage, biodiversity and habitats. Nor do these figures convey the disproportionate impacts of disasters on people in poverty or the need for equitable allocation of federal disaster assistance in accordance with social vulnerability. 

2021 Among Record Holders: The total number of billion-dollar disasters across the U.S. this year is already tracking well above the historical average of 7 events per year since NOAA started tracking in 1980. 

As of July 9, this year’s toll was already 331 lives lost and $29.4 billion in damages. 

On October 8, NOAA is set to release updates on 2021’s billion-dollar disasters (see NOAA/NCEI), which will reflect some of the events of 2021’s summer of extremes, including:

Ongoing western U.S. drought

Relentless wildfire season throughout the western U.S.

Record-shattering extreme heat in the Pacific northwest of the U.S. and Canada

Tropical cyclones that have devastated parts of the Caribbean, Gulf Coast and Northeastern U.S.

More Disasters, More Often: It’s not just the total number of disasters—but how often they happen—that strains the resources available for communities to manage risks and recover quickly.

Between 1980-2020, the time between billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year has steadily dropped, according to new analysis by Climate Central, with as little as two weeks on average between disasters in 2020. 

The average time between billion-dollar disasters—time to help communities across the nation recover—has dropped from 82 days in the 1980s to 26 days in the 2010s. In the last five years (2016-2020), there have been just 18 days on average between billion-dollar disasters. 

Less time between disasters can mean less time and resources available to respond, recover and prepare for future events. 

Globally, the highest costs have resulted when multiple events occur in the same region and season—as in the Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2017 (Raymond et al., 2020). According to NOAA, these two seasons resulted in more than 5,000 U.S. lives lost and over $520 billion in combined economic losses from billion-dollar tropical cyclones.

Billion-Dollar Disasters in a Warmer World: According to the latest IPCC report, it is an “established fact” that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have “led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times.”

The report concludes that the intensity and frequency of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, and the proportion of major tropical cyclones have increased globally based on observations—trends that are projected to continue with additional warming. 

The increase we’ve already seen in U.S. billion-dollar disasters reflects approximately 1.1 °C (2.0°F) of warming to date since the industrial revolution (1850-1900). And we can expect more warming in the coming decades. 

The latest IPCC report estimates that, without rapid emissions cuts, the target set in the Paris Agreement of 1.5 °C (2.7°F) warming by 2100 is very likely to be exceeded by the mid-2040s at the latest. Exactly when these targets could be exceeded (and by how much) depends on the speed and scale of global climate action. 

Without more ambitious emissions cuts that align with the Paris Agreement targets (which countries are being asked to commit to at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November), we can expect even more frequent and intense billion-dollar disasters in the future. 

What climate risks could we face if we fail to cut emissions? This interactive web app, created by Camilo Mora and colleagues, allows users to explore the cumulative impact of 11 different climate hazards at any location across a range of future emissions scenarios.