The world's coal pipeline has shrunk by three-quarters

 From Carbon Brief

There is now a broad consensus that unabated coal power generation must be rapidly phased out if the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement are to be met.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sees coal use falling by around four-fifths this decade on a 1.5C pathway. The International Energy Agency roadmap for 1.5C says unabated coal power should end by 2030 in advanced economies and by 2040 globally. 

A pivotal first step is ensuring no new coal-fired power stations are built. UN secretary general António Guterres is calling for an end to their construction after this year and COP26 president designate Alok Sharma wants the summit in Glasgow to “consign coal power to history”.  

In new analysis, published today, we show that the global pipeline of new coal plant projects has already shrunk dramatically since 2015, bringing the world closer to a pathway consistent with international climate goals.

To date, 44 governments have committed to end the construction of coal plants. A further 33 countries have cancelled their project pipelines since 2015 and are in a position to make a formal “no new coal” pledge, alongside seven more with no plans to replace their coal fleets.

The remaining pre-construction pipeline is spread across a further 37 countries, 16 of which have just one project. Just six countries account for more than four-fifths of proposed coal plants, namely China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Bangladesh.

Most of these six are reducing but not ending their plans, our analysis shows. If any were to commit to no new coal, it would radically reduce the global pipeline of new projects. 

Back in 2015, when the world’s governments negotiated the Paris Agreement, there was a total of 1,553 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity in the global pipeline, our analysis finds.

This total, shown on the left in the chart below, includes plants under construction or in earlier stages of development. Since 2015, the pre-construction pipeline has collapsed by 76% to 297GW, with just 185GW under construction as of July 2021 (right-hand pie).

Left: The global pipeline of coal capacity under construction (red wedges) or in earlier stages of development (permitted, orange; pre-permit, yellow; and announced, blue) as of July 2015 (left-hand pie chart) compared with July 2021 (right-hand), in gigawatts. Right: The global cumulative total of coal capacity built (blue) or cancelled (grey) since 2015, gigawatts. Source: E3G, Global Energy Monitor and Ember (2021).

The shift in coal dynamics means that fewer and fewer countries have new coal plants under development – and an increasing list are making this into a formal “no new coal” commitment.

The chart below shows the number of countries considering coal plants at each stage of development on the y-axis, as an alternative way illustrating the shrinking global coal pipeline.

For example, in 2015 there were 26 non-OECD countries with coal plants under construction, amounting to a total capacity of 123GW (red line, left panel). By 2021, this had fallen to just 14 countries building a total of 72GW of new coal capacity.

Number of countries with coal plants at each stage of development, including those announced (blue line), at the pre-permit stage (yellow), permitted (orange) or under construction (red). Source: E3G, Global Energy Monitor and Ember (2021).

Similarly, the chart above shows that 11 countries from the OECD or EU28 were building 28GW of coal capacity in 2015 and this had fallen to five countries and 16GW by 2021 (right panel), namely Japan, Turkey, Poland, South Korea and Greece. (Notably, Greece and South Korea are now both considering converting their unfinished coal plants to gas.)

To date, our analysis finds that 44 governments have committed to not pursue any new coal plants, many through joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

If we build no more coal power stations, CO2 emissions will most likely have peaked.  Power generation contributes 30% of global emissions.   If no new coal power stations get built, the total number of  power stations will fall, because old power stations will be retired.  Also, as EVs start to replace petrol/diesel vehicles (ICEVs) , a further 20% of global emissions will be removed from the equation.  Those are two key steps on the road to zero emissions:  build no more coal power stations, and transit to EVs.