Record US solar installations

Source: EIA

From PV Magazine.

The United States installed more solar in the first quarter than in any previous first quarter ever, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). Almost 2 GW of utility-scale solar, 1.96 GW in total, were installed in the first three months of 2020, up more than 65% from the total installed in the first quarter of last year.

The fun doesn’t stop with utility-scale solar, however. According to SEIA, once residential installations are factored in, the total capacity installed in the first three months of the year jumps to 3.6 GW, which makes the start of 2020 the largest first quarter on record by more than 1 GW. The tidal wave of solar doesn’t seem to be slowing down yet, as SEIA also notes that 5.4 GW of new utility-scale PV projects were announced in the first quarter, though, as they year progresses, distributed solar will face virus-related tension and installation slowdowns.

America as a whole now has a cumulative installed utility-scale solar capacity of 41 GW as of March 31, up 18.4% from 12 months prior. According to SEIA, an additional 10.8 GW are set to add to that figure by the end of the year, with the projection that 14.4 GW of solar will be going online across all sectors in 2020.

According to SEIA, the U.S. solar market will install 113 GW of solar from 2020-25, which is actually down 3.6 GW from the projections the company made in 2019, due to the ongoing pandemic. The 2020 outlook was also lowered to reflect the pandemic, as initial projections expected the country to add 20 GW of solar in 2020.

In 2019, solar provided just 2% of the USA's electricity, but that has grown by 50% per annum compound since 2012.  The forecasts made be SEIA show a compound growth rate of just 30% per annum in total capacity by 2025.  It's possible that this lower growth rate will eventuate, because of the ending of the tax credit, but it is equally possible that the historic growth rate will continue, because solar costs are halving every 5 years; utility-scale solar is already cheaper than baseload gas and about the same as the marginal (operating) cost of coal; and the pressure to cut emissions will only continue as global heating accelerates.  At a compound growth rate of 30% p.a., solar will provide 30% of the USA's electricity by 2030, at 50%, it will provide all of it.