Lockdown works!
In the major European countries shown below, new coronavirus cases have peaked. Does that mean we can relax restrictions? No! The number of new infections before restrictions were imposed was rising exponentially, doubling every 2 or 3 days. We'll go right back to that if restrictions are relaxed now. This decline in new cases gives us is time. Time to get millions of remote thermometers, time to get test kits, time to make provision for emergency ICUs, time to make ventilators. We are asymptomatic for prolly two weeks after first being infected. So the number of new observed cases lags lockdown by two weeks. And there will still be laggers—people who remain infectious for longer than two weeks. Plus infectious surfaces, etc. But these declines give us a breathing space. As the number of cases declines we will be instituting the measures needed to deal with it next time.
The virus will return. And next time we'll be ready for it.
Alas, the pictures elsewhere are much bleaker. New cases are still rising in the US, though the rate of increase has slowed. And surely they are rising dramatically in developing countries. As ever it's the poorest who will be hit the hardest.
(Source of all charts:
John Hopkins Uni
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| New cases in Italy as at 30.03.20 |
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| New cases in Spain as at 30.03.20 |
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| New cases in Germany 30.03.20 |
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| New cases in Switzerland 30.03.20 |
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| New cases in the UK 30.03.20 |
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