New cases in Italy may have peaked

From John Hopkins Uni Covid webpage.  This is tentative evidence that lockdown works.  Without lockdown every infected person goes on to infect 2 or 3 others, sometimes more—at a party or meeting, for example.  But if we can reduce that rate to below 1, i.e., each person infects fewer than one other person, the disease will die away.  This is the first peak in this series—the "peak" on the 13th (click chart to enlarge) represents two days' worth of data, so the average of those two days is lower.

To definitively label 21st March as the peak I'd like another two days of declines.  But it's looking good.