"Deaths in Italy rose by 601 – but this figure was smaller than that for Sunday (651), which was smaller than Saturday’s record figure of 793." (The Guardian)
Of course, the lokcdown won't be removed until deaths have fallen to zero, and for perhaps 2 weeks after that, to confirm that the virus is no longer spreading. The less strict the lockdown, the longer it'll take before it can be removed. But reservoirs of infection in developing countries will remain for months.
What about new infections after the lockdown is removed, from some dormant residue of virus in, say, an unsymptomatic person? Well, we'll be much better aware of how to deal with this the second time round. We'll have more masks, more remote infra-red thermometers, more experience. We'll respond to subsequent infections much more quickly.
The economic effects will last longer. People who have lost their jobs will be slow to start spending again, especially if they've run down savings to survive while they were unemployed or on unpaid leave. It will take months for confidence to return, especially given the fear of a recurrence of the virus. And some businesses which foolishly borrowed heavily over the last few years, will never recover. The recovery of airlines, tourism and hotels will be slow, because restrictions on international air travel will remain. Also, the US administration is so dysfunctional, divided and inept that the US downturn will likely be deeper and longer than in other developed countries. So the first few months of the recovery will be sluggish, more L-shaped than V-shaped. A strong, sustained recovery will only happen when a working vaccine is developed, which is many months away.
The world economy will prolly bottom in June (depends on the US response), but the recovery will only really gather pace in late 2020 or early 2021.
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| Source: John Burn-Murdoch of the FT |
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