Monday, January 6, 2020

$11K for an EV

In India (article from TimesNext, an Indian English-language newspaper):

The world is slowly moving towards Electric Vehicles (EV), and some of them are making their way to our country as well. The Chinese automobile manufacturer Great Wall Motor is planning to launch its electric car Ora R1 in India and expand its network this year. It is termed as the cheapest electric vehicle available in the world with a price range of $8.6k to $11k (INR 6.2 lakhs to INR 8 lakhs).[A lakh=100,000 rupees]

The car is said to have a maximum range of 351km, and it runs on a 35KW motor. With a 351km range, it can be compared with other electric cars in the Indian market that have an average range of 270km and the maximum range of 452km on a full charge, which is claimed by Hyundai Kona. But then the drawback is that the car costs INR 28 lakhs. The average cost of an electric vehicle is INR 13-INR 14 lakhs, which is twice the price of the economical vehicles that are run on traditional fuel.

India’s air pollution crisis is soaring high, and the country is taking significant steps to shift towards green energy sources. The Indian government has promoted electric vehicle adoption through tax cuts and EV-focused subsidies; the higher cost of EVs is a constant reason for concern among Indian consumers.

The high cost of electric vehicles is because of the lack of lithium-ion battery manufactures in India. At present, the auto manufacturers are importing the lithium-ion batteries from other countries. Some automakers have decided to set up a battery manufacturing plant in India to reduce the costing. Suzuki, Toshiba, and Densi have agreed to form a joint venture and invest INR 3,715 cr to bump up the production of lithium-ion batteries.


When I point out to people that EVs are going to be very cheap, they always counter with how expensive Teslas are.  Well, Teslas are luxury cars, and even here, the new Tesla Cybertruck, which seats 6 as well as having a tray,  will cost about $40K, smack bang in the middle of the range for luxury petrol/diesel-driven trucks.  Not all of us can afford a Tesla.  Alas.  And it was always likely that manufacturers would, once they got over their shock at the EV technology, start to produce budget EVs.   The Ora R1 will have the same sticker price as cheap petrol cars in India.  But EVs are much cheaper to run than petrol cars, because the electric motor is 4-5 times as efficient as the petrol one and because it has 100 times fewer moving parts, so maintenance costs are negligible.  And this is just the beginning, as battery costs are going to continue to decline.  All that we need now is a network of chargers, but they too will happen.  As EVs proliferate, suppliers will start building out EV charger networks.

Does anyone seriously doubt that EVs won't have 100% of the new sales market by 2030?  Perhaps even by 2025?  And what will that do to the oil price?

One final point: electric car manufacturers in China have their hands full satisfying domestic demand.  But they are passing rapidly down a learning curve, and as production surges, at some point they're going to start selling cars en masse to the rest of the world.  Legacy car makers have only a couple of years to get their act together, or they're finished.



No comments:

Post a Comment