To reach zero carbon by 2050, emissions need to start falling by 3.3% per annum, stepping up to 4% per annum by 2025 and 5% per annum by 2030. Instead, they are still rising.
And cutting emissions by 3.3% per year from now on is perfectly feasible. We just have to replace coal power everywhere by renewables "firmed" with 8 hours of storage. Already, in most countries, this option is cheaper than new coal, and in some countries cheaper even than existing coal. Doing this alone by 2030 or 35 will reduce global emissions in total by 25%, or about 2% per annum compound.
By replacing our existing ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle fleet with EVs, we will be able to cut (global) emissions by another 14%, raising the combined annual reduction to a compound 3.3% per annum. And that's before we even start to deal with emissions from industry (iron and steel, cement, chemicals) where, again, cutting emissions will be easy. For example, we can produce iron and steel using green electricity and green methane. We can capture the CO₂ from the chimney stacks of cement plants and use pump it underground into basaltic rock. Agriculture will be hard, both politically and technically, but we can stop land clearing right now. If we wanted to.
Let's not set some distant goal, where the politicians now in power will be long retired, and will be able to lie and shrug, and say "we did our best". Let us set ourselves a goal of a 3.3% per annum cut in emissions. In 15 years that will cut emissions by 40%, in 25 by 60%, and in 40 by 80%. Not enough, but incomparably better than the current reality which is that emissions are rising.
It is a climate emergency, and still we aren't acting to cut emissions with enough determination and simple nous to save ourselves.
What a piece of work is a man! How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty! In form and moving how express and admirable! In action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world. The paragon of animals.
Yet too stupid and venal and short-sighted to act to stop his own home burning down. I despair.
Source: EPA |
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