Thursday, July 25, 2019

US PMIs fall in July

The top chart shows the PMI for manufacturing, the original (seasonally adjusted) data from IHS Markit together with my extreme-adjusted version.  No signs of a pause in the slowdown here!  It's the lowest it's been since IHS Markit started collecting the data over the last 9 years.



The chart below shows the average of the extreme-adjusted PMIs for manufacturing and services.  That didn't fall in July, because the services PMI rose.  By extreme-adjusting the data, as well as taking an average of two series, we reduce the random month-to-month fluctuations.  Essentially, the trend is still down.  Remember that these are preliminary ("flash") data, and will likely be revised a bit when more respondents have replied.  The revisions tend not to be large, but they do occur.


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