Sunday, June 30, 2019

Still sliding

I've mentioned before how entrepôt economies, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Vienna  accurately reflect the economies of their region.   To all intents and purposes, Austria is tantamount to Vienna.  And Austria's PMI fell again in June. 


We have the provisional PMI for the whole of Europe, for June, which had a tiny uptick, and has been flat for a couple of months.  This might suggest that the end to the European slowdown is in sight.  I don't think it is, because monetary policy hasn't shifted and fiscal policy is constrained.  On the other hand, the Euro has fallen against the US$, and that will provide some stimulus, with a delay (that fall has recently stopped). 

The fit between the Austrian and pan-European PMIs isn't exact, but its continued decline is a pointer towards a further slide in Europe's economy.



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