I have a bad feeling about this

My US diffusion index measures the combined effect of over 50 different series.  It looks to see whether a component time series is up or down on 5 months ago.  If it is up, it "scores" 1, if it is flat, it scores 0.5, and if it is falling, it scores 0.  At 100, all measured series are rising (a boom) and 0 all measured series are falling (a bust).  It tends to lead the economy by a couple of months, and has a slightly better lead than the "official" leading index from The Conference Board.  The chart below shows the two, with the leading index (red) shown as a year-on-year percentage change plotted on the left-hand scale, and my diffusion index (blue) on the right hand scale.

The diffusion index has fallen sharply, but is showing a bit of a rebound, consistent with recent economic indicators.

However, my long-leading index suggests a sustained downturn in activity through the rest of this year and into 2020.  The long-lead index  looks as if it's bottoming, at higher levels than it has done in previous recessions, suggesting perhaps that this downturn will be moderate, though probably prolonged.

The GFC deep downturn in 2008/2009 was also preceded by a relatively moderate decline in the long-leading index, yet we experienced the worst recession since the Great Depression.  That happened because of the mortgage/housing/banking crisis.

Every cycle is similar, but different.   This cycle will be much deeper if there is an oil crisis and/or leveraged debt in the USA blows up.  There is also a budding crisis in car loans, with default rates rising sharply, even though unemployment is at 50 year lows.  Before the GFC, the sign that the impending downturn would be severe was default rates on mortgages despite low unemployment and strong growth.  If there are record problems when times are good, how big will the problems get when times are bad?

To quote Star Wars, I have a bad feeling about this.