Friday, April 26, 2019

Austria April PMI down again

We have a "flash" (i.e., partial) estimate for pan-Europe PMI, which ticked up in April.  But Austria's PMI, which correlates very well with the PMI for Europe as a whole, fell to new lows in April.  It'll be interesting to see whether the uptick in the "flash" estimate is revised away when the full data set becomes available.  Austria's PMI is now below 50%, indicating that recession has begun.  Europe's PMI has been below 50% for a couple of months now.

For what it's worth, I don't think the European slowdown is ending.   Momentum is down, the US and the rest of the world are slowing, and any moves by the ECB haven't yet had a chance to work.


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