Europe 85% renewables by 2040

IEEFA reports on two different forecasts for the penetration of wind and solar in the European grid by 2040.   One is by the IEA (International Energy Agency).  The Other is by BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance).  The IEA has consistently underestimated the growth in wind and solar.  Whether this is because the IEA was set up to analyse and advocate for fossil fuels or whether it's because of sheer ineptitude I don't know.  BNEF has a much better forecast record, and even they haven't been optimistic enough.  I concede that it is hard to forecast exponential growth, because you don't know at what point growth will slow down to a more normal pace. And small differences in growth rates can make big differences in absolute levels over time.  However, the IEA seems to have no awareness at all that renewables growth is exponential.   I'm not even going to show the IEA's forecasts.  I don't think they're useful at all. 

Here's the chart of BNEF's forecasts.  Wind and solar will reach 66%, hydro about 15% and other renewables 4%-ish (reading off the chart), making a total of 85%.  Surprisingly, they're forecasting that nuclear will still make up around 10% of the mix which will take non-fossil fuels to 95%.  IEEFA doesn't mention it, but the likelihood is that by then even the gas will be made by power-to-gas, i.e., using surplus electricity from renewables to create hydrogen by electrolysis, and then either the hydrogen is used directly, or methane is made via the Sabatier reaction to be used when renewables supply or total demand is too low or too high for batteries/pumped hydro to cope.

If you add the likelihood that the vehicle fleet will be close to 100% electric, Europe will have cut its emissions by at least 60% from today's levels.  In all likelihood the decline will be bigger, because there are other initiatives to reduce emissions--for example, energy saving.