Germany to phase out coal over 20 years

The lignite-fired power plant in Niederaussem, Germany (Source: The Guardian)

From The Guardian:

Germany has agreed to end its reliance on polluting coal power stations by 2038, in a long-awaited decision that will have major ramifications for Europe’s attempts to meet its Paris climate change targets.

The country is the last major bastion of coal-burning in north-western Europe and the dirtiest of fossil fuels still provides nearly 40% of Germany’s power, compared with 5% in the UK, which plans to phase the fuel out entirely by 2025.

After overnight talks, the German coal exit commission of 28 members from industry, politicians and NGOs, which has worked since last summer to thrash out a timetable for ditching coal power, agreed an end date of 2038. A review in 2032 will decide if the deadline can be brought forward to 2035.

The final 336-page document agreed by the coal commission, seen by the Guardian, shows Germany plans to reduce its 42.6GW of coal power capacity to about 30GW by 2022, falling to around 17GW by 2030. The deal will be formally published next Friday.

Greenpeace has called for an end date of 2030, but other environmental groups in the country supported a 2035 cut-off. Almost three quarters of Germans believe a quick exit from coal is important, according to a poll of 1,285 people by the broadcaster ZDF.

[Read more here]

I would have preferred a faster elimination of coal, but if you look at the figures, a target of 30 GW of capacity by 2022 implies a 9% per annum decline, which is actually substantial.  The rate of decline after 2022 slows, though only to 7% per annum, which is interesting--usually, taking the medicine is postponed as long as possible.  I would have expected slow declines initially and faster ones later on.

But at least Germany is doing something, and planning for a total coal phase-out.  And a phase-out over 20 years still ends carbon  emissions 12 years before the global target which is 2050.  Even if some gas is used instead, the probability is that Germany won't build too many new gas power stations because storage will be much cheaper in 5 years, and less gas peaking will be needed.  And if total emissions could fall by a compound 7% per annum, then they would fall nearly 80% over 20 years.  Surely a major achievement,