Thursday, November 29, 2018

Renewables upstaging fossil fuels

In 2017, for the first time, the increase in renewables capacity in developing countries exceeded new investment in fossil fuels.  Note that 'fossil fuels' includes gas, which complements renewables because it can be easily dialled up or down to compensate for variable renewables supply. 

(Source: Bloomberg)



Developing countries have added more clean power capacity than fossil fuel generation for the first time ever, charging ahead of wealthier nations in the global green energy push, according to Bloomberg NEF.

Wind and solar generation accounted for just over half of the 186 gigawatts of new power capacity in developing nations last year, according to BNEF’s annual Climatescope survey released Tuesday. Not only that, they’ve added more clean energy generation than developed economies, increasing zero-carbon capacity by 114 gigawatts compared with about 63 gigawatts in richer countries.

The findings show a turnaround from a decade ago when the world’s wealthiest nations dominated renewable investment and deployment activities.

“Just a few years ago, some argued that less developed nations could not, or even should not, expand power generation with zero-carbon sources because these were too expensive,” Dario Traum, BNEF Climatescope project manager said in a statement. “Today, these countries are leading the charge when it comes to deployment, investment, policy innovation and cost reductions.”

Emerging markets added the least new coal-fired power generating capacity last year since at least 2006. New coal plants in these countries slumped 38 percent from a year earlier to 48 gigawatts in 2017, which was about half of the peak in 2015, according to BNEF.


[Read more here]

I expect that the collapse in coal will accelerate, because not only are new renewables cheaper than new coal, they are now in many places cheaper than existing coal.  (Also, remember that the capacity factors for renewables are around 30% whereas the capacity factors for coal are higher--though in India and China, where there is overcapacity and coal-generated power is more expensive than wind or solar, not much higher.)

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