I repeat: a car from a supposedly bankrupt company, with a months-long waiting list, with a new technology, and not cheap, is the 5th best selling car in America. This must be giving legacy car manufacturers the heeby-jeebies. What will happen when Tesla introduces the base Model 3, costing $35,000? What will happen when Tesla expands its production lines, again? What will happen when proud new owners give friends and family test drives in their new, beaut Model 3? How long before the Model 3 is the best-selling car in America? Will you still be buying oil stocks? Will you still be holding legacy car company stocks?
I'm sure many of you think I've been far too optimistic about EVs. Yet here we are, only half way through Tesla's model 3 ramp, and a year away from the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla pick-up truck. And the Tesla Shanghai gigafactory. Tesla is triumphing. EVs are 2.5% of total car and light truck sales in the USA, double the percentage of just 12 months ago. They will double again over the next 18 months and again in the 18 months after. Or it might be, in the next 12 months and the 12 months after that. The S-curve is flexing up.
By 2026 or 7, EVs will be nearly 100% of total global car sales. 10 or 12 years later they will make up 95% of the world's car fleet.
|Note steep acceleration.|
|Percentage has more than doubled in one year! |
At this rate the percentage will reach 9% by the end of 2021,
36% by 2024.
|Smoothed growth rate 90% year on year.|
|Note logarithmic scale. A straight line implies a constant growth rate|
|Percentage now the same as in the US|
|Growth slowing to a mere 55% per annum. |
Just about doubling every 18 months. Will reach 100% penetration within 9 or 10 years.
➥ Source of basic data Inside EVs. My seasonal adjustment and smoothing. My charts.