After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, September 10, 2018

US EV sales up 120%, or, Tesla triumphs

In August, sales of EVs (electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) rose 120% over sales in August 2017.  Most of the jump is due to the Model 3.  Without Model 3 sales, total EV/PHEV sales would be up just 12.5% on last year.  In fact, 63% of August EV sales were from the three Tesla models.   In August, the Tesla Model 3 was the 5th biggest seller of ALL US cars, behind only the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, the Honda Accord and the Toyota Corolla Family.  Let that penetrate for a minute.  An electric car, from an upstart manufacturer, is the 5th bestselling car in the US.  And it doesn't even advertise.  And you have to wait months for it to be delivered.  And the MSM has been spreading FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) about whether Tesla will survive, whether it's profitable, oh, and why doesn't Musk just give up?

I repeat: a car from a supposedly bankrupt company, with a months-long waiting list, with a new technology, and not cheap, is the 5th best selling car in America.  This must be giving legacy car manufacturers the heeby-jeebies.  What will happen when Tesla introduces the base Model 3, costing $35,000?  What will happen when Tesla expands its production lines, again?  What will happen when proud new owners give friends and family test drives in their new, beaut Model 3?  How long before the Model 3 is the best-selling car in America?  Will you still be buying oil stocks?  Will you still be holding legacy car company stocks?

I'm sure many of you think I've been far too optimistic about EVs.  Yet here we are, only half way through Tesla's model 3 ramp, and a year away from the Tesla Model Y and the Tesla pick-up truck.  And the Tesla Shanghai gigafactory.  Tesla is triumphing.   EVs are 2.5% of total car and light truck sales in the USA, double the percentage of just 12 months ago.  They will double again over the next 18 months and again in the 18 months after.  Or it might be, in the next 12 months and the 12 months after that.  The S-curve is flexing up.  

By 2026 or 7, EVs will be nearly 100% of total global car sales.  10 or 12 years later they will make up 95% of the world's car fleet.

Note steep acceleration.  

Percentage has more than doubled in one year! 
At this rate the percentage will reach 9% by the end of  2021,
36% by 2024.

Smoothed growth rate 90% year on year. 

Note logarithmic scale.  A straight line implies a constant growth rate

Percentage now the same as in the US

Growth slowing to a mere 55% per annum. 
Just about doubling every 18 months.  Will reach 100% penetration within 9 or 10 years.

➥  Source of basic data Inside EVs.  My seasonal adjustment and smoothing.  My charts.

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