EVs 100% of the market by 2025

I've been very optimistic on the take-up of electric vehicles (EVs).  I've based that optimism in general on the classic S-curve of technology adoption, and on the idea that growth is exponential not linear.  Something which doubles every 2 years, for example, can soon grow from very tiny to huge.  If EV sales double every 2 years, and they are now about 2.4% of total car sales globally, then in 2 years they will be 4.8%, in 4 years 9.6%, in 6 years 19.2%, in 8 years 38.4% and in 10 years 76.8%.  With that growth rate, EVs will make up 100% of total global car sales in 2029. 

I've found someone who is even more optimistic than I am about the uptake of EVs: Prof Ray Wills, a professor at the University of Western Australia.  And he's just revised his forecasts up because the numbers have been even better than even he thought:

China on track to top 1 million #ElectricVehicle sales this year
If so, my world #EVs projection for 2018 and beyond too low
Imagine that
Too low
More EVs faster than even I imagined
And I've imagined a few

(Source of quoted material and all charts: Ray Wills)

Prof Wills forecasts much higher EV sales than anybody else (even me!)

China is 1/3rd of the world's car market.  It has strong EV targets.  The growth rate isn't 50% per annum but 100%!  (NEV = new energy vehicles, mostly EVs or PHEVs, but including a few hydrogen celled vehicles)

His forecast is that by 2026 no more petrol- or diesel-driven vehicles (ICEVs) will be sold.  As I said above, my forecast is that that will happen only in 2029.

That rapid uptake of EVs will take time to be reflected in the world's car fleet, because the average car lasts longer than 10-12 years.  In poor countries, they're much older, for obvious reasons.

Using last year's EV growth forecasts--which will now have to be upgraded!--oil sales will fall a by 30 million barrels a day by 2040.  World oil production was 80 million barrels a day in 2016.   The oil price will collapse long before 2040, though.  The 2014 oil price collapse was caused by a mere 3 million barrels a day oversupply.  That oil price crash also caused a slow-down in the growth rate of EVs in the US, so a price plunge may also have that effect in future.  But that will just be a temporary blip.  EVs are much cheaper to run, far more fun to drive, smoother and quieter, and by 2022 or so, their sticker price will be the same as or below ICEVs.  Meanwhile, governments everywhere will be panicking about global warming and air pollution.  EVs are safe.