Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

EV sales motoring

In the US, despite the reduced sales caused by the delayed introduction of the Tesla Model 3 and the new longer-range Nissan Leaf, EV/PHEV sales continue to rise, in absolute terms and as a percentage of total car sales.  With the Model 3 and the new Leaf, EV/PHEV sales in the US should more than double this year.

However, thanks to China's push to clean up its air, world EV/PHEV car sales are exploding.  Note how sales data show an exponential curve (arithmetic scale)

Plotted on a log scale, the percentage of EV/PHEV relative to total car sales is rising in a more or less straight line.

And the rate of growth in world EV sales is extraordinary: 80% year on year in December.  At 80% per annum growth EVs/PHEVs will make up 8% of sales by the end of 2019 and 14% by the end of 2020.  Even at a 50% growth rate, EVs/PHEVs will make up 8% of total car/light truck sales by the end of 2020.  This is a serious market.  If you are a car manufacturer, and you're not there, you face imminent extinction.  Which guarantees that every car maker of note will be there.  Which in turn guarantees high sales growth (plus of course battery prices halving over the next 3 years and halving again over the subsequent 3).  On any reasonable growth assumption, EVs/PHEVs will be 75% of world car sales by the end of 2025.

[As ever, source of EV/PHEV data is Inside EVs; my seasonal adjustment and smoothing; my graphics program]

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