Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, May 24, 2014

Coal price slump

The price of coal is sliding fast (it had a bit of an uptick yesterday when China's PMI came in fractionally stronger than expected, but I doubt that'll last)

Part of the reason is the slowdown in China.  Note that this isn't a cyclical slowdown.  It's a reduction in the trend growth rate.  Since China is the world's largest coal market, obviously that will affect coal prices all  by itself, especially since supply (from Oz and elsewhere) has increased.

But the inexorable march of solar is also having an effect.  The cost of solar power is falling so fast that there are no longer macro-economic consequences for switching from coal-fired to solar electricity.  And coal is so filthy (at least a million killed a year from air pollution) that it now makes sense for new power to be sourced from the sun. China has tripled its target for solar electricity.  You've all seen the pictures of air pollution in Beijing.

So coal is prolly beginning a secular slump in price.

No comments:

Post a Comment