The problem with GDP is that it is such a comprehensive measure. Everything goes into the pot: spending, production, incomes, trade, inventories. That's a problem? Yes, because it means that preliminary estimates of GDP tend to be revised after newer and better data become available.
So I watch my coinciding index as a good and timely guide to GDP.
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There's a bit of a gap opened up between the COI and GDP. Has my trusty indicator stopped working? I suspect not. In fact, I think it's because GDP will be revised upwards in a year or two, as the results of census data become available. The latest couple of years of GDP data are always a work in progress. The reason for the excellent fit in the past is because GDP data have by now been revised. But my COI has not been substantially revised -- seasonal factors have shifted a little, and some of the component data have been tweaked.
The US economy is quite strong.
Pity about Europe.
[Oh, and yes, my programs are working again]
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