Saturday, December 13, 2025

The coming cheap electricity boom

 A comment by Jilles van Gurp, on Electrek's Solar and wind are covering all new power demand in 2025


Basically the penny that hasn't dropped yet with a lot of people is that there are going to be two types of countries. 1) the type of country that covers all their power needs with self-generated, cheap, clean power 2) the type of country that are hopelessly dependent for most of their power needs on both expensive fossil fuel imports and domestic fossil fuel companies taking huge chunks of their GDP out of the economy.

One of those will do really well in competing with the other. That's China vs. the US right now. Everything the US does, China can do cheaper, faster, and better. That really matters when you are selling to the rest of the world like China is and the US seems to be struggling to do. It really is that simple. If the US wants to have an export market in the future, it needs to let go of fossil fuel. The sooner it figures that out the better it's chances.

China is on a track to go cold turkey on fossil fuel by the 2060s. Yes they are building coal plants. But those are not running at full capacity anymore. They are hitting peak coal even as they build more plants. Solar/wind are growing faster. Compound growth curves mean all that coal capacity is rapidly becoming less relevant. Just like the Chinese have been planning. If anything, that's speeding up because they are doing unexpectedly well with solar and battery.

After WWII, the world entered a period of sustained high growth, with declining inequality, low unemployment, and a belief that their children would be better off.  In retrospect, a golden age. 

It was driven by three forces:

  • High taxes on the rich, which were used to boost education, science, transport and economic progress.
  • Keynesian economics, which advised governments to increase spending during recessions, instead of embracing austerity, which is the current failing orthodoxy.
  • Cheap energy.  The global oil price was controlled by the Texas Railroad Commission, and remained stable until the oil crisis.
These three drivers of prosperity failed with the Vietnam War; the surge in the oil price as US supply declined and OPEC flexed its muscles and instituted an oil embargo; and the rise of neo-liberalism.

Today, solar and battery costs continue to decline, battery costs precipitously.   This means that the cost of energy will once again be low, and even better than stable---it will be falling.   Countries which embrace renewables will have low and falling energy costs.  Countries which don't, will reduce their growth rate and standard of living.  As Jilles van Gurp says, it's obvious.  

As an aside, the countries which will benefit the most from cheap solar are in the sunbelt, between latitudes 30 North and South, and they're mostly developing countries, which have hitherto been held back by poor access to electricity.  That is all changing.  Since they are so far inside their production possibility frontier, these poorer countries embracing renewables could achieve very high growth rates.  China sees this.  The US, blinded by racism and arrogance, calls them "shithole" countries, and completely missed the point.

(Source)


Renewables covering all new power demand this year

 From Electrek


Solar and wind are growing fast enough to meet all new electricity demand worldwide for the first three quarters of 2025, according to new data from energy think tank Ember. The group now expects fossil power to stay flat for the full year, marking the first time since the pandemic that fossil generation won’t increase. [Recall that the Covid Crash led to a deep, though short-lived, recession.  2025 is not a recession year, though 2026 may be]



Solar and wind aren’t just expanding; they’re outpacing global electricity demand itself. Solar generation jumped 498 TWh (+31%) compared to the same period last year, already topping all the solar power produced in 2024. Wind added another 137 TWh (+7.6%). Together, they supplied 635 TWh of new clean electricity, beating out the 603 TWh rise in global demand (+2.7%).

That lifted solar and wind to 17.6% of global electricity in the first three quarters of the year, up from 15.2% year-over-year. That brought the total share of renewables in global electricity – solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy, and geothermal – to 43%. Fossil fuels slid to 57.1%, down from 58.7%.

For the first time in 2025, renewables collectively generated more electricity than coal. And fossil generation as a whole has stalled. Fossil output slipped slightly by 0.1% (-17 TWh) through the end of Q3. Ember expects no fossil-fuel growth for the full year, driven by clean power growth outpacing demand.

China and India are partly driving that shift. In China, fossil generation fell 52 TWh (-1.1%) as clean energy met all new demand, resulting from a structural change in its power system. India saw fossil generation drop 34 TWh (-3.3%), thanks to record solar and wind growth and milder weather.

Solar is doing the heavy lifting. It’s now the single biggest driver of change in the global power sector, with growth more than three times larger than any other electricity source in the first three quarters of the year.

“Record solar power growth and stagnating fossil fuels in 2025 show how clean power has become the driving force in the power sector,” said Nicolas Fulghum, senior data analyst at Ember. “Historically a growth segment, fossil power now appears to be entering a period of stagnation and managed decline. China, the largest source of fossil growth, has turned a corner, signaling that reliance on fossil fuels to meet growing power demand is no longer required.”

Electricity demand rose 2.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, far slower than the 4.9% jump seen last year when extreme heatwaves pushed up cooling demand in China, India, and the US. This year’s milder weather helped take some pressure off the grid, making it easier for clean energy to close the gap.

For the first time outside of major crises such as the pandemic or the global financial crash, clean energy growth has not only kept up with demand but surpassed it. The next big question: can solar, wind, and the rest of the clean power sector keep up this pace consistently? If they can, 2025 may be remembered as the year global fossil generation plateaued. [peaked]

I talked about EMBER's report for the first 6 months of 2025, here.  The conclusions are pretty much the same.  Renewables are beating fossil fuels, partly because of slower demand growth because of cooler summers, as well as because of massive growth in wind and solar.   So it is possible that in 2026, hot summers and higher economic growth will increase demand again, by more than the rise in electricity generated by renewables.  But it is unlikely, and if it does happen, renewables will overtake demand again in 2027.  Emissions have probably peaked.  Even if their decline will be slow, at first.

China's oil demand to peak in next 5 years

 From Reuters


China's oil demand is forecast to plateau between the years 2025 and 2030, a research group linked to state oil major CNPC said on Thursday, as the rise of electric vehicles slashes demand for gasoline and diesel.

Most of China's incremental demand for oil this year came from jet fuel and petrochemicals, said Haibo Wang, director of oil market research at the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute.

Apparent consumption of oil is expected to reach 760 million tons in 2025, up 0.9% on the year, he added, but demand is set to stabilise next year and stay above 700 million tons until 2030. 
Last year the research unit forecast that oil demand could reach 770 million tons in 2025, before gradually falling to 240 million by 2060.

In September, top refiner Sinopec, which is also state-owned, said it expected total oil demand to peak in 2027.

Natural gas demand will peak later, between 2035 to 2045 at 620 billion to 650 billion cubic meters, the CNPC research group added.

It also raised its forecast for oil demand used to make chemicals and new materials to a peak of 290 million tons in 2050, up 57% from this year.

Even though demand for oil for road transport is now falling fast in China, demand for oil for chemicals and plastics will continue to rise.  

75% of people don't get enough of this nutrient

 

Omega-3 fatty acids are essential polyunsaturated fats that the body cannot produce in adequate amounts, requiring intake through diet. The key forms, EPA and DHA, are primarily found in marine sources such as salmon, mackerel, sardines, and algae, while ALA is present in plant foods like flaxseed, chia seeds, and walnuts. These fats contribute to cell membrane function, support cardiovascular and cognitive health, and play important roles in regulating inflammation and neural development. Credit: Shutterstock


From SciTechDaily


More than three-quarters of people around the world are not consuming enough Omega-3, according to new findings from the University of East Anglia, the University of Southampton, and Holland & Barrett.

The joint analysis reports that 76 percent of the global population falls short of recommended levels of EPA and DHA. Researchers say this shortfall represents a major worldwide public health concern.

This publication is the first comprehensive global review to compare national and international guidelines on omega-3 intake across every stage of life in generally healthy individuals.

Prof Anne Marie Minihane, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said: “Our research looks at recommendations for omega-3 fats and how they compare to what people are actually eating.

“We found big gaps between what’s advised and what most of us consume. To close that gap, we need easier, sustainable ways to get these important nutrients – like foods enriched with omega-3s or supplements. These changes could help more people enjoy the health benefits linked to higher intakes.

“We hope this work will help inform nutritional scientists, clinicians, food and supplement industries, policy makers and consumer communities,” she added.

Dr. Abbie Cawood, Science Director at Holland & Barrett and Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Southampton, said: “The health benefits of long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, specifically eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), are too important to ignore.

“Achieving recommended intakes from diet alone can be challenging, highlighting the need for accessible, sustainable sources of EPA and DHA. Omega-3s play such a vital role in health, ensuring people can meet their needs either through diet or with the support of supplementation is essential at every life stage.

“In fact, our review highlights that supplementation is often required to meet recommended intakes especially in pregnancy and those with low fish intakes. We are hopeful that this publication can act as an enabler to inform omega-3 dietary guidelines and shape future nutrition policy and public health strategies.”

Prof Philip Calder from the University of Southampton added: “The omega-3s EPA and DHA are essential for health throughout the life course. But to benefit from these nutrients, people first need to understand how much they should be consuming.

“In this review, we brought together all the recommendations for EPA and DHA intake in healthy populations from authorities around the world to help answer the important question: ‘how much do I need?’ What is clear is that most people are not meeting these recommendations.”

Omega-3 intake contributes to overall health at every point in life. Research shows that these fatty acids can lower the likelihood of pre-term birth and aid visual and cognitive development in infants, while also supporting heart health and the immune system in later years. Studies have additionally linked higher omega-3 levels with a reduced risk of depression and age-related cognitive decline, including Alzheimer’s disease.

The new global review points out that current scientific evidence, public health recommendations, and actual intake levels are often not aligned. The authors aim to clarify ongoing confusion surrounding omega-3 guidance and to emphasize the broad health advantages of increasing intake among healthy people of all ages.

Earlier recommendations commonly concentrated on specific periods such as pregnancy, infancy, or older adulthood. In contrast, this review evaluates needs across the full lifespan, providing guidance that is more relevant and easier to apply for the wider population.

It highlights that guidance around omega-3 intake currently varies by country, creating a significant amount of confusion across the globe, and reinforces the importance of consistent evidence-based guidance.

The paper aims to support public health on a global scale and offers guidance to countries outside Europe and North America, for example, in Latin America and parts of Asia, including India, to develop public guidelines around safe intake levels and supplementation advice.

The review found that the most frequently recommended intake for adults is 250 mg per day of combined EPA and DHA, with an additional 100–200 mg of DHA advised for pregnant women. These targets can be achieved by eating more oily fish, such as salmon or mackerel, or through supplementation where needed.

The paper also identified challenges that different populations have in achieving current omega-3 recommendations, such as difficulties in meeting oily fish recommendations due to low seafood consumption, or sustainability concerns, as well as some populations having limited access to supplementation advice.

[Reference: “An overview of national and international long chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid intake recommendations for healthy populations” by PC Calder, AL Cawood, C James, F Page, S Putnam and AM Minihane, 24 November 2025, Nutrition Research Reviews.
DOI: 10.1017/S0954422425100279

This review was conducted in partnership with Prof Philip Calder (University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine), Prof Minihane (University of East Anglia and Norwich Medical School), Fionna Page and Claire James expert dietitians from at First Page Nutrition Ltd, and Dr. Cawood, Science Director at Holland & Barrett and Dr. Sophie Putnam, Head of Science at Holland & Barrett.]


From Wikipedia:


Omega-3 fatty acids, also called ω−3 fatty acids or n−3 fatty acids,[1] are polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Omega−3 fatty acids are important for normal metabolism.[2]

Mammals are unable to synthesize omega−3 fatty acids, but can obtain the shorter-chain omega−3 fatty acid ALA (18 carbons and 3 double bonds) through diet and use it to form the more important long-chain omega−3 fatty acids, EPA (20 carbons and 5 double bonds) and then from EPA, the most crucial, DHA (22 carbons and 6 double bonds).[2] 

Flaxseed (Linseed), Hemp seed and Walnuts are the best vegetable sources.  One tablespoon of flaxseed (20 grams) will provide 2,600 mgs of omega-3 oils, which, according to the SciTechDaily article is 10 times as much as the scientists recommend.    However, conversion of ALA into DHA appears to be severely restricted, with only 3.8% of the ALA being converted to DHA.

Walnuts are a good source, but unfortunately, here in Australia, they are often rancid, which means the oils have broken down, and they're not good for you.  In some countries, fish oil is also rancid, but the manufacturers conceal this.   If you don't want to eat fish oil, you can buy algal oil, which is made from sea algae (which incidentally is also where the fish get it from.)

I take two tablespoons of ground linseed a day to ensure I get enough DHA.  One interesting side effect is that it significantly reduces my arthritis joint pain, but of course, that might not work for you.  After doing research for this piece, I have decided to add algal oil to my supplementation.

ALA, DHA and EPA break down easily in sunlight (that why the bottles they're sold in are dark) and in heat.  Keep them in the fridge, whether they are in ground form, or as capsules of oil.  And don't cook them. 

Ground flaxseed absorbs liquid and when you mix it in water or some other fluid, it will solidify unless you use enough liquid.    



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