Monday, June 1, 2020

Iron ore recovers; coal languishes

Because China consumes so much of the world's production of iron ore, when the iron ore price starts to rise, it's usually a sign that the Chinese economy is accelerating.  China is definitely recovering, but it's very likely that GDP is still below the pre-covid crash peak. 

China is also the world's largest consumer of coal.  And its price is not recovering, reflecting the very different fundamentals.  The world and China will go on demanding more and more iron ore and steel.  But demand for coal has prob'ly peaked, as US and European power utilities switch to renewables and gas.  It will likely peak this year or next in China too, as the costs of new-build renewables there fall below the wholesale cost of electricity.






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